Economic surprises are strongest in the eurozone

The macroeconomic environment has not substantially changed over the past month. Although the US had to publish a slightly disappointing fourth-quarter growth figure, due to lower government expenses, weaker equipment investment and lower export growth, the recovery remains on track. The US’ manufacturing PMI is still clearly above 50, the level that divides growth from contraction. The euro zone economy continues to improve, with a higher-than-expected PMI manufacturing of 51, supported by Germany, Italy and Spain. In the meantime, China, too, remains – although only slightly – above the 50 level.

In that context, economic surprises for the G10 have decelerated somewhat, mainly due to disappointing figures from the US. Economic surprises for the emerging countries are improving somewhat, but the biggest improvement is clearly visible in the euro zone, whose economic surprise index is now positive and definitely higher than the US’, with the region clearly benefiting from the euro depreciation.

Globally, the recovery remains on track and supports our positive macroeconomic scenario. We expect the US economy to grow by 2.4% in 2015, and the euro zone to accelerate to around 1.6%.